A survey conducted by the VACCELERATE Consortium, a pan-European clinical research network coordinating to speed up existing and upcoming development programs for new vaccines and vaccination strategies, has shown influenza viruses to be the top-ranked pathogen in terms of pandemic potential.
The study involved 187 infectious disease experts from 57 countries. It revealed a consensus among participants, with 57% ranking influenza as the number one threat. An additional 17% placed influenza second.
Other highly ranked pathogens included “Disease X” (an as-yet-unknown disease) and the viruses responsible for SARS, SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19), and Ebola. 21% of participants ranked “Disease X” number one whereas 14% opted to rank it second.
Conversely, viruses such as Hantavirus, Lassa, Nipah, henipavirus, and Rift Valley fever were among those ranked lowest in perceived pandemic risk. The experts were allowed to rank up to 14 pathogens in the order of their perceived risk. Based on its position, each pathogen was then allotted a score.
A persistent threat
The study’s lead author, Dr. Jon Salamanton-Garcia, will present his findings at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Global Congress later this month, in Barcelona.
Different strains pose major challenge
“Each winter we have an influenza season. One could say that this means that every winter there are little pandemics,” Dr. Salmanton-Garcia explained in a statement. “They are more or less controlled because the different strains are not virulent enough.”
“Yet, every season the strains involved change, that is the reason why we can get influenza several times in life and vaccines change year to year. In case a new strain becomes more virulent, this control could be lost.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined a Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, targeting key infectious diseases posing significant threats to public health. Diseases were selected after rigorous evaluation, considering factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and their potential for evolution.
Lessons from COVID-19
The study concluded that influenza, disease X, SARS-CoV-1, SARS-Cov-2, and the Ebola virus are the “most worrisome pathogens,” taking into account their potential to set off another pandemic.
While the threat of an influenza pandemic looms large, Dr. Salmanton-Garcia acknowledged that the world is now better prepared due to the experiences gained during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“In the COVID-19 pandemic, we have learned many things on how to approach a respiratory virus pandemic. This includes social distancing, hand cleaning, face masks, a renewed focus on vaccination, and trust in health care institutions.”
“In parallel, institutions have also learned a lot. Preparedness and surveillance are now, vitally, better-funded.”
The 187 responses were collected from infectious disease experts hailing from 57 different countries. Among these, Germany accounted for the most with 14% of responses, followed by Spain (11%) and Italy with 8%.
Details of the study have been published in the journal Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.
