BTC had an impressive run this week, managing to push above a key downtrend line and the September high at $52.9k. It managed to hit an intraweek high of $56.1k, digging deeper into the $55k to $58k zone of technical and on-chain resistance.
The rally so far has shown profit-taking from much younger coins, while the older cohorts continue to steadily hold. Although many weak hands who bought BTC above $50k earlier this year panic sold during the May liquidation wipe out, we can expect some remaining investors looking to break even add near term selling pressure, especially between $55k to $58k.
Given the technical and heavy on-chain realized price distribution in the $55k to $58k zone, it could take BTC multiple attempts to push above these levels, before confirming a large breakout towards the previous all time highs at $64.8k.
Consolidation Before Next Major Move?
Near-term technicals, especially on the 4-hour chart, reached moderately overbought levels, suggesting a consolidation or small pullback is needed before preparing for the next major move. At the moment, BTC continues to remain above the September high at $52.9k, a very important level. Bitcoin needs to make a weekly close above it in order to continue the breakout and validate the bear trap.
A weekly close above $52.9k is a very bullish signal and increases the probability of retesting the $55k to $58k zone of resistance. The more resistance is tested, the weaker it becomes, further increasing the probability of breaking above resistance if enough buyers come into the market.
Slight Uptick in Spot Exchange Reserves – Still at Multi-year Lows
In addition to BTC reaching near-term overbought levels, the past few days saw a slight uptick in spot exchange reserves, as younger coins began to take profit. This is a near term cautious signal, but we have to keep in mind reserves remain at multi-year lows.
Spot exchange reserves have been trending lower the entire year, as investors continued to buy BTC and withdraw from exchanges, adding to the massive supply shock.
Bitcoin bulls are anxiously waiting for the weekly close to see if BTC can push above the critical $52.9k level. If they can maintain buying pressure and push BTC above $58k, the probability of retesting all-time significantly increases, as there is much less resistance above $60k.
Global Risk-On Trade Coming Back?
The SPX managed to hold a key intraweek low and printed multiple daily closes higher suggesting a double bottom and reversal developing. The dollar has been flat with money flowing out of longer-term bonds suggesting the risk-on trade could be coming back as investors attempt to get past near term uncertainties.
Overall, the trend in fundamental, technicals, and on-chain remain firmly bullish, as the long term holders firmly held despite this year’s severe drawdowns, FUD, liquidation events, and uncertainty. The recent price action has shown the bulls are firmly gaining back control from the bears. The outperformance of Bitcoin relative to other risk assets during major risk-off events in September is a major sign of strength for the largest cryptocurrency, suggesting continuing outperformance once markets resume risk on.
The weekly close relative to $52.9k will likely determine BTC’s direction for the coming weeks.